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Showdown in Myanmar Can Add Happy or Unhappy Ending to Fairy-tale

Saturday, November 7, 2015
YANGON: More than 30 million voters across Myanmar will decide on Sunday whether to give Nobel Prize-winning Aung San Suu Kyi a fairy-tale victory that was stolen from her 25 years ago.

But the dogged and fearless pro-democracy activist appears headed for a showdown with the country's powerful military leaders after the first free election since 1990, when an army junta refused to accept a landslide victory by her National League for Democracy (NLD).

The party is expected to emerge from Sunday's election with the largest number of seats in an election seen as a milestone in the country's transition from isolated military dictatorship to a society seeking to attract foreign investment and tourists.

But Ms Suu Kyi cannot become president and the generals remain firmly in charge under a constitution they wrote that gives them the power to appoint key security ministers and the heads of the most important government agencies.

The constitution also guarantees the army a quarter of parliamentary seats which almost certainly will allow the generals to block major government decisions and changes to the constitution.

The military in 2008 wrote into the constitution a clause barring anyone with a foreign spouse or foreign children from becoming president. Ms Suu Kyi's late husband and two children are British.

Taking a defiant stand on the eve of the election, Ms Suu Ky vowed to take a post "above the president" if she wins, a stand seen as a direct challenge the military which kept her confined for 15 years in her decaying colonial mansion, with only a shortwave radio her link to the outside world.

During two months of campaigning Ms Suu Kyi appears to have lost little of her massive popularity among voters, bringing hope for a better life to millions of desperately poor people whose families suffered during more than half of century of rule by a clutch of superstitious, brutal and corrupt generals.

"Mother Suu is part of our hearts. She is doing everything she can for her people and we love her," said Khin Moyo, a 40-year-old mother of four living in a village north-west of Yangon, the main city.

Many Burmese see Sunday's election as the moment of destiny for 70-year-old Ms Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's independence hero Aung San, prompting concerns about unrest if she cannot take control of a new government.

Ms Suu Kyi warned on Thursday her party would "make a fuss" if there are attempts to tamper with the votes.

Some analysts believe that if the military-backed ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party loses badly, the military will still allow a transfer of power to what Ms Suu Kyi has promised would be a multi-party "government of national reconciliation".

Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based analyst and advisor to the International Crisis Group, said the military already has the authority they need to protect their interests.

"And I think that means that transferring power is much less of a risk and concerning to them than it was in 1990", he said.

Ms Suu Kyi won a Nobel Prize for defying the dictators but her critics say she now displays her own authoritarian style that has antagonised some ethnic groups and ultra nationalistic Buddhists, including firebrand monks who have been trying to portray her as being sympathetic to Muslims, who they see as a threat to Buddhist traditions and culture.

For the first time since independence 1.3 million Rohingya Muslims have been barred from voting and fielding candidates.

Ethnic groups will be crucial to deciding the outcome and are expected to play a pivotal role during potentially volatile post-poll "horse trading" among parties to shape the next government.

On the eve of the election Western powers urged Myanmar to ensure polling is fair and transparent after Ms Suu's party lodged complaints about scores of electoral violations during campaigning.

About 11,000 local and international monitors will oversee 40,000 polling stations.

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Saturday November 23, 2024
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