PHUKET: The ability of Phuket to saunter through troubled times will be more severely tested by the Bangkok bombing than ever before.

This one will be different.

If there are more atrocities, then the one-trick holiday island, wholly dependent on tourism, might as well bar its doors now.

We are hoping that the government and police can quickly solve this tragic crime, with security camera footage giving them clear clues about the identity of Bangkok's Erawan Shrine killer.

Phuket is, of course, more than an hours' flying time south of the Thai capital. In the past, that piece of geographical fortune and direct flights have ensured that tourists keep coming to the island haven.

Random bombings are something that travellers can usually put in perspective, even if 20 people have been killed and more than 100 wounded.

But there will inevitably be an instant cost to tourism, followed by a longer-term reaction. This time, for a variety of reasons, Phuket will inevitably suffer a downturn in visitor numbers.

People from Hong Kong, Asia's most trouble-sensitive market, immediately cancel. That's why the former British colony almost always tops the ''red alert'' travel warning list, which in this case so far taking in 23 countries.

Japanese and Koreans are also likely to fall away quickly. Several business events were immediately cancelled or postponed in the face of the bombing, among them the Japan-Thai Expo.

What has yet to be determined is whether the Chinese market will falter. Australians and Europeans are known to be resilient travellers who can quickly put danger in perspective.

Usually, they keep flying. Even the 2004 tsunami failed to stop Europeans and Australians from holidaying on Phuket. Russians are also notoriously hardy travellers.

But the Chinese are different. And the big change in Phuket's tourism industry these days is the preponderance of Chinese travellers.

Dependence on one market spells doom for any travel destination facing a serious turnoff factor.

To put the tragedy in perspective, a random blast on one tenth the scale of the Bali bombing, with no declared perpetrator and no declared motive, is less scary, especially when Phuket is such a long way from Bangkok.

That can all change with frightening speed. Plenty of villas are going for rent this high season, for example, because the Russians won't be returning in such numbers.

What has also yet to be determined now is the reaction of Phuket's near-neighbors in Singapore and Malaysia. Some of the bombing victims were from those two countries.

Will they keep coming? Maybe. But perhaps not in such numbers.

With bookings now being made for Phuket's high season, the Bangkok bombing is likely to bring a falter, rather than a stumble.

Phuket, though, was already making some missteps.

The island's odd focus on Chinese package tours at the expense of independent travellers and greater diversity is now bearing strange fruit.

It will take some fast footwork on the part of the island's smartest operators and the Tourism Authority of Thailand to find optimism for Phuket in the face of Banghkok's adversity this time.



Level One (lowest advisory)
Netherlands

Level Two (12 countries)

Denmark
US
Taiwan
France
Switzerland
Japan
Belgium
Singapore
Sweden
Austria
Malaysia
Korea

Level Three (nine countries)

Great Britain
Ireland
Italy
Australia
Germany
New Zealand
Canada
China

Level Four (highest)

Hong Kong