HALFWAY through 2009, the future six months for Phuket look every bit as bleak as the past six months have already proven to be.

More jobs will go. More businesses will close. Statistical and anecdotal evidence combine to tell a disappointing tale.

At the halfway mark of 2005, six months after the tsunami, Phuket was on the way back. The island had the generous support of the world.

People were coming to the island because they wanted to help. The only way was up.

And it was a good chance to change a few things, to sort out some of the chronic problems.

What happened? Nothing. Phuket just grew greedier.

Instead of striking a balance with nature, development was allowed to continue, almost beyond control.

Not one of the chronic defects was fixed. The only changes were for the worse.

This time, Phuket's disaster is man-made, not natural, so no help is coming.

Today the island faces a bleak short-term future because of a combination of factors outside its control, but also because of its refusal to look in the mirror.

This is not just the opinion of visitors but a view shared by many locals, especially Phuket people.

One Thai who runs a dive business put it like this: ''Phuket nowadays is like a middle-aged woman who doesn't know how to dress to suit her true self.

''She wears too much make-up and she drinks every night. . . . she gets drunk and throws up down by the beach.

''And she doesn't give a damn any more about her natural beauty.''

The economic downturn, Thailand's politics and perhaps some concerns about swine flu have made tourism much more difficult.

But the underlying problem is that Phuket no longer shows a desire to make tourists feel as though they really are in paradise.

Prices are pumped up. Rip-offs are rife. And that will make recovery much harder than it should be.

According to the latest data for May compiled by STR Global, Phuket suffered a 32.1 percent year-on-year decrease in resort room occupancy, falling to 34.5 percent.

How will Phuket win back those customers, and when?

It is going to be a long haul (no wordplay intended.) The tourism world is a much more competitive place now than ever before.

Concerns about swine flu will ease because everyone, everywhere is going to catch it eventually.

But Thai politics . . . well, the optimists reckon it could all be sorted in three or four years. Anything could happen, and probably will.

In the meantime, the image problems that Phuket could solve and should solve, the issues within the control of the island, are not being addressed.

Will those three or four years be all pain, and no gain?

On present indications, that's quite likely.

Lack of progress will be a certainty if nobody heeds what people have been saying more loudly than ever lately about corruption, about the lack of public transport, about making tourist safety a priority, and about the need for a balanced environment.

What's needed for change?

To begin with, Andaman resort managements need to pipe up, to speak out as one, and to assert their powerful viewpoint strongly, both here and in Bangkok.

One encouraging sign: the Summer in Phuket marketing campaign, superficial at first sight, has at least brought together resorts, local authorities, and community interests.

If they can move beyond marketing to lobby loudly with one voice for change, some of that pain might become gain.

The national government has to be made to realise incentives are required now. If the tourists are ever to return in numbers, and along with them the revenue streams, Phuket's chronic problems must be resolved first.

*Bali was the only one of 17 markets measured to increase in RevPAR for the month, rising 10.8 percent to US$88.79. Five markets reported RevPAR decreases of more than 40 percent including Bangkok (-48.4 percent to US$36.36) and Phuket (-47.6 percent to US$25.80). Three markets reported ADR increases: Bali (+18.5 percent to US$127.83); Tokyo (+12.9 percent to US$228.55); and Osaka (+8.7 percent to US$129.72).


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