INDICATIONS are that the unnecessary suffering caused by Thailand's political turmoil will extend well into the coming high season.
Get set Phuket for a long, hard road to recovery.
Many resort managers are reluctant to admit it, but all the signs point towards a disastrous November followed by an extremely lean December.
The crisis centres on forward bookings, which are just not happening in numbers, Phuketwan is being told.
For example, a survey by the Straits Times newspaper in Singapore reveals that new bookings of trips to Thailand have ''completely dried up'' at three out of seven agencies.
''Travel giant CTC Holidays used to handle 30 new bookings for trips to Thailand every week. Now there is none,'' the newspaper reported yesterday.
''On top of that, about 80 percent of their clients, due to travel about this time, have cancelled their bookings.
''Another major player, Chan Brothers Travel, has seen new bookings fall by about 90 percent compared with two weeks ago.
''About half of the existing bookings were cancelled during this period.''
And this is close-neighbor Singapore, where there are five flights daily to Phuket. But for how much longer?
Some tourists are fulfilling existing bookings, especially Australians who seem to treat extra-cautious government travel warnings with the contempt they deserve.
But new bookings, especially from countries with cultures that leave them believing what authorities tell them? For the most part, forget it.
As the latest report from Singapore highlights, potential tourists are opting for other destinations, especially Bali.
There are exceptions, and Phuket may actually be doing even better than some other destinations within Thailand, with Patong healthier than other destinations around the island.
But we are prepared to say that some Phuket resorts will almost certainly be forced to lay off staff before the end of October, the sorrowful outcome of ''democracy'' in action.
Bhuritt Maswongssa, the marketing director for the Thai Hotels Association Southern Chapter, confirms that the island's resort occupancy rate for September is running at 50 percent.
This compares with around 70 percent last year.
He says the concern is not so much people who have already booked and are often going ahead with their holidays, but future bookings.
In many cases, Khun Bhuritt said, travel agents had block bookings still in place but they would be struggling to make the individual sales.
He cited one well-known resort at Surin that has just two occupants in its 118 rooms at present.
Phuketwan also has spoken to unhappy staff at large resorts in Krabi especially where the splendid facilities are virtually empty all day, every day.
''We should give awards to Aussies because if something happens here, they just keep on coming,'' Khun Bhuritt said.
And there are other small rays of sunshine amid the gloom. This year's Miss France contestants are still aiming to be on Phuket between November 13-21. Vive La France!
Efforts are also being made to speed the high-season recovery, although results are unlikely to appear before 2009.
An extra one million baht has been donated by the Phuket Provincial Orborjor. The money will most likely be spent on road shows to China, Singapore and Malaysia with the Phuket Tourism Association and the Tourism Association of Thailand.
Thai Airways is giving the road show teams fares at half price.
Phuket Fights To Win Back Tourist Flights
Tell it straight letters have been sent to 26 foreign embassies but the idea of discounts to restore Phuket's high season brings a mixed reaction; Bali battles to keep its bikini ways.
Phuket Fights To Win Back Tourist Flights
Phuket's Pain: Passengers Slump, Flights Drop
An accurate measure of the downturn in tourism comes with the release of figures from Phuket International Airport that show passenger numbers down by 27 percent and flights off a similar figure.
Phuket's Pain: Passengers Slump, Flights Drop
Key Events: Protests and Phuket
December 23: Samak Sundaravej leads the People Power party (PPP) to election victory.
February 6: Samak unveils a cabinet made up of members of a six-party coalition which holds nearly two-thirds of parliamentary seats.
February 28: Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, in self-imposed exile for 17 months, gets hero's welcome from supporters as he returns to Thailand and goes straight to court, where he is released on bail on corruption charges.
May 25: The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a collection of anti-government groups, launches street protests calling for Samak to resign for seeking constitutional amendments they believe are aimed at helping Thaksin.
July 8-10: Court decisions force out of office three senior government officials and Yongyut Tiyapairat, the house speaker and PPP deputy leader.
July 15: A military standoff breaks out near a disputed temple on the Thai-Cambodia border, with the PAD accusing Samak of relinquishing Thai territory to help Thaksin with a business deal in the neighbouring country.
July 31: Thaksin's wife, Pojaman, is convicted of tax evasion and released on bail.
August 11: Thaksin and his wife go into exile in Britain, claiming they will not get a fair trial on the corruption charges mounting against them.
August 26: At least 35,000 PAD-led protesters raid a TV station, surround three ministries and break into Bangkok's main government compound in what they say is their ''final war'' against the government.
August 29: Scuffles break out between police and PAD supporters still laying siege to Government House. Protests spread. Hundreds of PAD protestors assemble around Phuket International Airport. Some reach the tarmac. Flights stopped at 3.50pm
August 30: Stranded passengers arrive at airport in hope of flights resumption. Airport General Manager Wing Commander Wicha Nurnlop says that in some ways, the airport blockade is ''worse than the 2004 tsunami.''
September 1: The protest at the airport is over. About 3.50pm a Thai Airways Boeing 777 from Bangkok touches down, first of the airlift in, and an exodus out.
September 2: Overnight clashes leave one dead and dozens injured in Bangkok so Samak declares a state of emergency in the capital, allowing the army to move in to help restore order. Thai Election Commission finds the PPP guilty of buying votes and recommends the party be disbanded.
September 3: Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag resigns. Army chief Anupong Paochinda tells Samak that despite state of emergency he will not use force to disperse anti-government protesters from Government House. Phuket resort occupancy rates slump to 30 percent and recovery could take two years.
September 4: Samak says in a radio and television speech that he will not resign. Cabinet later suggests a national referendum as a solution to the impasse.
September 9: Constitutional Court disqualifies Samak from holding the office of Prime Minister over paid appearances on a TV cooking show.
September 12: MPs vote for to elect a PM and Samak is the leading candidate but there are insufficient numbers for a quorum. Samak realises his position is untenable and steps aside.
September 14: State of emergency for Bangkok lifted but travel warnings by more than 20 countries remain in place.
September 17: Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother in law, elected as the new PM.
Get set Phuket for a long, hard road to recovery.
Many resort managers are reluctant to admit it, but all the signs point towards a disastrous November followed by an extremely lean December.
The crisis centres on forward bookings, which are just not happening in numbers, Phuketwan is being told.
For example, a survey by the Straits Times newspaper in Singapore reveals that new bookings of trips to Thailand have ''completely dried up'' at three out of seven agencies.
''Travel giant CTC Holidays used to handle 30 new bookings for trips to Thailand every week. Now there is none,'' the newspaper reported yesterday.
''On top of that, about 80 percent of their clients, due to travel about this time, have cancelled their bookings.
''Another major player, Chan Brothers Travel, has seen new bookings fall by about 90 percent compared with two weeks ago.
''About half of the existing bookings were cancelled during this period.''
And this is close-neighbor Singapore, where there are five flights daily to Phuket. But for how much longer?
Some tourists are fulfilling existing bookings, especially Australians who seem to treat extra-cautious government travel warnings with the contempt they deserve.
But new bookings, especially from countries with cultures that leave them believing what authorities tell them? For the most part, forget it.
As the latest report from Singapore highlights, potential tourists are opting for other destinations, especially Bali.
There are exceptions, and Phuket may actually be doing even better than some other destinations within Thailand, with Patong healthier than other destinations around the island.
But we are prepared to say that some Phuket resorts will almost certainly be forced to lay off staff before the end of October, the sorrowful outcome of ''democracy'' in action.
Bhuritt Maswongssa, the marketing director for the Thai Hotels Association Southern Chapter, confirms that the island's resort occupancy rate for September is running at 50 percent.
This compares with around 70 percent last year.
He says the concern is not so much people who have already booked and are often going ahead with their holidays, but future bookings.
In many cases, Khun Bhuritt said, travel agents had block bookings still in place but they would be struggling to make the individual sales.
He cited one well-known resort at Surin that has just two occupants in its 118 rooms at present.
Phuketwan also has spoken to unhappy staff at large resorts in Krabi especially where the splendid facilities are virtually empty all day, every day.
''We should give awards to Aussies because if something happens here, they just keep on coming,'' Khun Bhuritt said.
And there are other small rays of sunshine amid the gloom. This year's Miss France contestants are still aiming to be on Phuket between November 13-21. Vive La France!
Efforts are also being made to speed the high-season recovery, although results are unlikely to appear before 2009.
An extra one million baht has been donated by the Phuket Provincial Orborjor. The money will most likely be spent on road shows to China, Singapore and Malaysia with the Phuket Tourism Association and the Tourism Association of Thailand.
Thai Airways is giving the road show teams fares at half price.
Phuket Fights To Win Back Tourist Flights
Tell it straight letters have been sent to 26 foreign embassies but the idea of discounts to restore Phuket's high season brings a mixed reaction; Bali battles to keep its bikini ways.
Phuket Fights To Win Back Tourist Flights
Phuket's Pain: Passengers Slump, Flights Drop
An accurate measure of the downturn in tourism comes with the release of figures from Phuket International Airport that show passenger numbers down by 27 percent and flights off a similar figure.
Phuket's Pain: Passengers Slump, Flights Drop
Key Events: Protests and Phuket
December 23: Samak Sundaravej leads the People Power party (PPP) to election victory.
February 6: Samak unveils a cabinet made up of members of a six-party coalition which holds nearly two-thirds of parliamentary seats.
February 28: Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, in self-imposed exile for 17 months, gets hero's welcome from supporters as he returns to Thailand and goes straight to court, where he is released on bail on corruption charges.
May 25: The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a collection of anti-government groups, launches street protests calling for Samak to resign for seeking constitutional amendments they believe are aimed at helping Thaksin.
July 8-10: Court decisions force out of office three senior government officials and Yongyut Tiyapairat, the house speaker and PPP deputy leader.
July 15: A military standoff breaks out near a disputed temple on the Thai-Cambodia border, with the PAD accusing Samak of relinquishing Thai territory to help Thaksin with a business deal in the neighbouring country.
July 31: Thaksin's wife, Pojaman, is convicted of tax evasion and released on bail.
August 11: Thaksin and his wife go into exile in Britain, claiming they will not get a fair trial on the corruption charges mounting against them.
August 26: At least 35,000 PAD-led protesters raid a TV station, surround three ministries and break into Bangkok's main government compound in what they say is their ''final war'' against the government.
August 29: Scuffles break out between police and PAD supporters still laying siege to Government House. Protests spread. Hundreds of PAD protestors assemble around Phuket International Airport. Some reach the tarmac. Flights stopped at 3.50pm
August 30: Stranded passengers arrive at airport in hope of flights resumption. Airport General Manager Wing Commander Wicha Nurnlop says that in some ways, the airport blockade is ''worse than the 2004 tsunami.''
September 1: The protest at the airport is over. About 3.50pm a Thai Airways Boeing 777 from Bangkok touches down, first of the airlift in, and an exodus out.
September 2: Overnight clashes leave one dead and dozens injured in Bangkok so Samak declares a state of emergency in the capital, allowing the army to move in to help restore order. Thai Election Commission finds the PPP guilty of buying votes and recommends the party be disbanded.
September 3: Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag resigns. Army chief Anupong Paochinda tells Samak that despite state of emergency he will not use force to disperse anti-government protesters from Government House. Phuket resort occupancy rates slump to 30 percent and recovery could take two years.
September 4: Samak says in a radio and television speech that he will not resign. Cabinet later suggests a national referendum as a solution to the impasse.
September 9: Constitutional Court disqualifies Samak from holding the office of Prime Minister over paid appearances on a TV cooking show.
September 12: MPs vote for to elect a PM and Samak is the leading candidate but there are insufficient numbers for a quorum. Samak realises his position is untenable and steps aside.
September 14: State of emergency for Bangkok lifted but travel warnings by more than 20 countries remain in place.
September 17: Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother in law, elected as the new PM.
