SMALL tour operators are going bust, golf caddies are struggling to survive, and resort jobs will probably go on the line immediately after the Asean Plus Six summit next month.

Already some of the island's top resorts are giving workers as much unpaid leave as possible as an alternative to the step they do not wish to take: redundancies.

But the strain is showing, with occupancy rates generally sliding below 40 percent. Some resorts are already at 15 percent, which means the outlook is grim.

One large tour operator, who wished to remain anonymous, said: ''Many businesses are at breaking point. Even with discounts, there are not enough customers to go around.''

Phuket's largest single market, Australians, are returning in substantial quantities to Bali, Indonesia, the tour operator said, where there is no political uncertainty and prices are competitive.

The Chief of the Phuket Provincial Office of Labor Protection and Welfare, Anuchon Varinsathien, said he now has eight or 10 workers a day coming to complain that they have not been paid.

Often the business has already closed or is about to close, Khun Anuchon said.

While the Asean Plus Six Summit on June 13-14 will bring a quick injection of cash for some southern resorts around Karon, others in different parts of the island have no such option.

And once the Asean summit has passed, the island's whole economic outlook seems decidedly bleak.

Khun Anuchon said that he has 10 staff and they are increasingly stretched. Each case at the labor office requires about 90 minutes of paperwork, including an interview, then often a follow up with the employers involved.

''Numbers are climbing consistently now,'' Khun Anuchon said. ''Before the Songkran holiday, we would have one or two people a week.

''Now there are eight to 10 a day.''

Khun Anuchon said the small tour operators were suffering the most so far.

Phuketwan has also learned that some large Phuket resorts already have upl, or unpaid leave, as standard for all staff. It can amount to several days each month.

Some resorts offer additional English lessons or skills upgrades to prevent boredom. With few guests and little to do, boredom is a new problem.

Almost every resort is undergoing a phased approach to deal with the deep economic uncertainty.

While the majority would like to keep as many staff as possible, pressures will mount if revenues decline beyond acceptable forecasts.

At that point, even the most sympathetic managers will be forced to retrench staff.

Patong is the single exception, with resorts there mostly still reporting relatively healthy occupancy figures.

In some other parts of Thailand, the outlook is far worse.

Caddies at the island's golf courses are mostly sub-contractors, who rely on at least one job a day or at worst one every second day to make ends meet.

All the caddies are women, and many enjoy the lifestyle because only working four or five hours at a time enables them to attend to other tasks, relying for income on a small set fee and a tip from the golfer.

Now caddies are struggling to earn a living, much as they were almost five years ago, after the 2004 tsunami.

The difference between then and now is that 2005 was a much worse year than 2008 and 2009 are likely to be, but there was certainty back then that business would trend upwards and recover.

While tourism was badly affected, the sympathy of the world rode with Phuket and the property market provided an economic crutch for the island's rehabilitation.

There is no crutch this time and the difficulty is that nobody can say for sure yet when Phuket's pain will end, and when the only way will be up.

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