UPDATE
Protest leaders announced today that the red shirts will not vacate the streets of Bangkok until Parliament is dissolved.
Phuket Economic Analysis
ON A SUNNY DAY, Phuket remains a great place to be. But how seriously has the island been damaged, though, by the Bangkok bungle and the killings that followed?
We drove around the coast a couple of days ago, taking in Phuket's majestic vistas. Between Karon and Patong, we discovered a newly-built elevated roadway that descends to a rising resort, a palatial construction that represents the best hopes and the promise of Phuket's future.
Nearby, a billboard promotes the opening of the Centara Grand in high season, 2010. The 262-room five-star-plus project represents an investment of 1.9 billion baht, elevated roadways and all.
How much confidence will the management of Centara hold now for their grand investment? For the foreseeable future, hope is all that Phuket and the Andaman region retains.
It would be possible for us to call and survey the island's resort management teams, but such a move would not tell us much. Resort managers are conditioned to accentuate the positive, to overlook lulls or setbacks, and nobody can blame them for eternal optimism.
Through thick and thin, before the tsunami and after it, big international and Thai brand names have continued to see the medium and long-term benefits in investment on Phuket.
Thanks to one night in Bangkok, it's unlikely that investment will continue. I would be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't dry up completely.
Most of the brand-name confidence would have gone out the window when the first shot felled a protester on Saturday night. The decision to send in the troops produced a deadly fireball of a fiasco that has damaged Thailand's social and political fabric more than any prolonged stand-off could have.
Thailand is now a tourist destination tainted by real spilled blood, the blood of protesters and soldiers, and a Japanese news cameraman who may have, in his dying moments, filmed his own killers.
We drove to Nai Harn beach, and looked around the The Phuket Yacht Club Puravarna, a magnificent resort property. It is reportedly one that is on the market, although finding someone to confirm that, or the precise number of resorts that are up for sale on Phuket, is always difficult.
For sellers, the property market took a distinct turn for the worse on Saturday night. For buyers, the main question is: how much confidence can I have in getting a satisfactory return on my investment, and when?
As with the 2004 tsunami, the full scale of the disaster will take a while to manifest itself. Tourists who were on Phuket in late 2004 mostly stayed on despite the tsunami, determined to complete their holiday.
There is no reason for those tourists who are here now to go in a hurry. The bigger question is, though, will they ever come back?
With uncertainty now at its greatest level since the red protests began on March 12, with continued confrontation likely and no sign of compromise, we venture to suggest that tourists who have holidays here in April may come if they have already paid, but forward bookings beyond May are likely to evaporate.
Phuket's ability to put the case that it is distant from Bangkok in kilometres and attitude wears thin when governments fall and killers roam the capital. You can bet that the resort managers of Greater Phuket, a creative lot, will continue to be innovative in offering deals and discounts that entice tourists to come, no matter what.
But being eternal optimists, most leaders in the industry were counting on Thailand's outlook improving, not on bullets, bombs and bereavements.
Some of the island's best five-star brands are already offering rooms at the equivalent of 1500 baht a night. Their food and beverage arms are mostly struggling, because tourists with less cash to spend invariably eat out.
As good as Phuket remains as a destination, the prospects for a quick recovery to standard room rates and sales in property, along with the retention of all jobs in both industries, have been shot down just as surely as hopes of a truce.
Opinion The bloodletting in Bangkok must stop. It's time for Thailand to come to its senses and find a collective path to peace and prosperity.
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PHOTO ALBUM A swim at sunset almost became a Songkran family tragedy as four children and a would be rescuer found themselves in danger at a Phuket beach.
Phuket Five Rescued from Beach 'Quicksand'
Patong's Hollywood Massacre 'Never Happened'
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Patong Police Chief Bans Tourist-Photo Iguanas
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Club Med Stirs Phuket Anger over Beach Walls
PHOTO ALBUM The highly regarded Club Med resort at Kata is at loggerheads with locals and some of its own guests over a plan for expansion that would see a tall wall built along the beachfront.
Club Med Stirs Phuket Anger over Beach Walls
May I kindly ask if the Central Grand have any appropriate waste water treatment? Otherwise would be pity to stay in such secluded and exclusive place and swim in a coli-bacteria contaminate sea just like other beautiful beaches in Phuket.
Editor: It's highly unlikely that Centara's wide experience on Phuket has led them to behave irresponsibly. We hope one day our phone calls are returned, then we can ask.
Posted by Malpelo on April 13, 2010 11:35