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Turned upside down: even flights from Down Under to Phuket fell away

Phuket's Biggest Fans Flattened by Blockade

Thursday, March 12, 2009
Phuketwan Economic Update

THE LATEST Tourism Authority of Thailand figures for guest arrivals have finally arrived at Phuketwan and they make depressing reading, for two reasons.

The first reason is the statistics themselves. They reveal a shock slide in tourist numbers by 42.83 percent in the third quarter of 2008.

The second reason for depression is that the figures now in our hands are for a period almost six months ago.

The lack of speed in compiling and distributing these figures makes us feel more like historians than journalists.

And the numbers are so dated as to be useless for the marketing people at Phuket resorts. They desperately need current information to chase new markets for tourism.

From a historical perspective, these figures for July to September would have been seriously affected by the three-day invasion and blockade of Phuket airport that lasted until August 31.

Those three blank days for incoming and outgoing flights, and the aftermath, probably left September as something of a black hole compared to July and August.

Because the figures are for the whole quarter, we cannot tell the extent of the damage from September-only figures.

We do remember being shocked, though, when one wise industry expert said it would take two years to recover from the Phuket airport blockade.

Nowadays, two years from August 2008 for a complete economic recovery, in the current climate, sounds almost optimistic.

Anyway, for what they are worth, given their age, the figures reveal the early impact of the global downturn coupled with the devastating effect on Phuket's economy of the invasion by the People's Alliance for Democracy.

The Q3 2007 total of 905,124 ''guest arrivals at accommodation establishments in Phuket'' shrank to 517,434 in 2008.

The proportion of Australians in that figure is also surprising. In 2008, Australian visitors totalled 78,567, down 41.03 percent from 133,230.

These are dominating numbers, both in good times and bad.

The next highest figure is Britain, where numbers fell by 40.24 percent to 26,084.

The most dramatic decline was in Thailand's immediate neighborhood.

With Korea (23,726) down 61.76 percent, Japan (22,129) down 47.75 percent, China (15,385) down 66.67 percent), Hong Kong (7940) down 72.58, Taiwan (5955) down 59.52 percent, it can be said, in less than historic terminology, that the East Asia market has tanked.

Add to that Singapore (7020) down 67.89 percent and Malaysia (12,755) down 55.51 percent, and Asia is a total write-off.

Europe fares only a little better with Sweden (9534) down 15.86 percent, Germany (9490) down 50.77 percent, France (9254) down 43.28 percent), Italy (6652) down 36.23 percent, Denmark (6632) down 40.64 percent, and even Russia (7414) down 38.26 percent.

Americans must love Thailand because they held on better: (13,138) down 27.62 percent.

The reliance on the Australian market is worrying. Phuket needs a variety of markets at different times of the year, especially as Australia is heading towards recession.

There were a couple of plusses: Spain (8029) up 18.44 percent and Poland (746) up 59.74 percent. But don't bet your resort's future on those.

Thai travellers also stayed at home, dropping by 27.42 percent to 148,549.

If we'd had these figures in October last year, which is when we'd hope to have them, we would have been saying something along these lines: ''Thank goodness the blockade of Phuket airport is over.

''That kind of invasion can only do great harm to Thailand and the tourism industry. Clearly, it will never happen again.''

You know what they say: those who do not learn the lessons of history are destined to repeat it.

Perhaps someone with a more up-to-date data base than the TAT can tell us how many jobs have been lost as a result on Phuket and in the Andaman region.

Update Tourist arrivals in the Asia-Pacific fell 2.8 percent year on year in last year's fourth quarter, with Thailand leading the plunge with a 28-percent decline, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) revealed on Wednesday.

PATA compiles travel statistics for 37 destinations in Asia, the Pacific islands and the Americas.

The association noted a ''dramatic downturn'' in fourth-quarter arrivals in Japan, Thailand and Sri Lanka, reflecting ''both the worsening global economic climate and regional/national issues''.

For the fourth quarter, international tourist arrivals fell 28 percent in Thailand, 15.6 percent in Sri Lanka, 15.5 percent in Hawaii and Tahiti and 12.2 percent in Japan, PATA said, according to the DPA newsagency.

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Horizon Karon Beach Resort & Spa

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