AS THE HIGH season draws to a close, figures based on forward bookings for resorts in Phuket and the region reflect a dismal outlook.

A Thai Hotels Association (Southern Chapter) survey of actual figures for December and projected figures for January and February demonstrates the flow-on effects of the global economic downturn and uncertainty about the future.

The survey, based on information from between 60 to 90 resorts, hotels and villas, is among the most reliable projections for early 2009.

Actual occupancy rates for December by all those accommodation units taking part in the survey averaged out at 54.48 percent.

While the THA figure excludes guesthouses, it compares with an occupancy rate of 65.82 for the whole of 2007, based on more comprehensive Tourism Authority of Thailand figures.

The TAT figures for all of 2008 are still being compiled. Tourist arrival figures for the first half of the year showed a year-on-year fall of 16.29 percent across the total number of international and Thai tourists.

The TAT occupancy figure for 2006, when the region was still recovering from the 2004 tsunami, was 60.69 percent.

Projections for January by resorts, hotels and villas that are members of the THA have yet to be superceded by actual figures.

Looking at the outlook for resorts, hotels and villas, they show substantial emerging downturns, especially at the high end of the market.

For January, the THA reports the outlook to be: five-star hotels, 43.17 percent; four-star hotels, 61.30 percent; three star hotels, 57.08 percent.

The average projected occupancy figure is 53.85 percent.

Figures for February are bleaker: five-star hotels, 26.28 percent; four-star hotels, 43.03 percent; three-star hotels 34.03 percent, providing an average of 34.45 percent.

The projected figures are based on Internet bookings as well as bookings through agents.

While it is difficult to draw conclusions from outlook figures, representatives from resorts have told Phuketwan that the coming low season is likely to be longer and lower than usual.

It will be a difficult time for the island's economy and have potentially negative social consequences.

Tuk-tuk and taxi drivers, for example, are likely to be competing for fewer fares. Service charge bonuses will shrink, and as they disappear, so will a sizeable proportion of the businesses that abound in good times.

Smaller brands in the diving industry, for example, are likely to find the downtime difficult.

While nearly all resort jobs have been preserved through a lower-than-usual high season, many of the high-end brands have contingency plans that will be forced upon them unless the outlook beyond March improves.

The only ray of sunshine: resorts in Bangkok and at other holiday destinations around Thailand are faring much worse than Phuket and the Andaman region.

It's a great time to refurbish and renovate.

As ever, the TAT figures remain difficult to reconcile with the number of arrivals and departures as recorded through Phuket International Airport, which remained around the 5.7 million figure in both 2007 and 2008.

However, in terms of the airport figures, 2008 took off to impressive heights then went into a decline that became more pronounced after the August airport blockade on the island and the even longer blockade in Bangkok in November.



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