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Myanmar Votes With Future Conflict the Only Certain Outcome

Sunday, November 8, 2015
YANGON: Myanmar's military-backed ruling party has declared it would not obey Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi if her party wins Sunday's watershed elections and she attempts to rule the government above an elected president.

In a looming standoff even before votes are counted, Htay Oo, head of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), said that ''nobody is above the president'' in a warning to Ms Suu Kyi, who claimed on Thursday she would run a new government "above the president" if her party takes control of parliament.

"The president is head of the country - no one is above the president, that is clear according to the constitution - it would be violating the constitution to appoint and direct the president," Mr Htay Oo told the Nikkei Asian Review.

He also signalled that the country's powerful army would not obey or follow a proxy leader after the country's first free elections in 25 years

"It cannot happen . . . how can the Tatmadaw [military] accept that kind of president? Even other institutions, how could they accept it?" he asked.

Ms Suu Kyi is barred from the presidency by a 2008 army-written constitutional provision stipulating that no one can take the post if they have foreign children or spouses.

Her late husband and two children are British citizens.

Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy is expected to win the largest number of seats and be best placed to shape the formation of what she calls a "government of national reconciliation," testing her country's transition from a military-run pariah state to democracy.

Myanmar's President Thein Sein, a former general, promised on the eve of the election that his government and the army would respect the results, no matter what the outcome.

His comments appeared aimed at subduing fears that his government was not sincere in holding free and credible elections.

The army refused to accept that the NLD won a 1990 election in a landslide and implemented a brutal crackdown that saw Ms Suu Kyi kept under house arrest for 15 years.

Two months of boisterous campaigning were largely free of violence despite attempts by ultra-nationalists and a group of firebrand monks to portray Ms Suu Kyi as a foreign lackey sympathetic to the country's long-persecuted Rohingya minority.

About 11,000 local and foreign observers monitored the election that is being contested by 92 political parties.

Mr Thein Sein said that after the election he would meet with the leaders of all political parties and discuss steps forward.

In a country where many people are superstitious, a straw poll of soothsayers indicated a victory for Ms Suu Kyi, the daughter of the country's independence hero Aung San.

Election officials are expected to release results within 48 hours of the polls closing.

A new government will not take its place in parliament until February, prompting concerns of unrest during months of potentially volatile post-poll horse-trading.

What's at stake in Myanmar's first free election in 25 years:

.. More than 30 million voters cast ballots for 6000 candidates from more than 90 parties in national, state and regional assemblies.

.. The most likely scenario is Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) winning the most seats and reaching out to "friendly" ethnic parties for a parliamentary majority.

.. No matter what the result, the army is guaranteed a quarter of seats in parliament.

.. The most complex scenario is the NLD winning the most seats but the incumbent military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) joining with some ethnic parties and the army to take the presidency.

.. The worst-case scenario is the NLD performing poorly amid evidence of widespread intimidation, interference with the voting process and fraud, prompting widespread civil unrest which might lead the army to declare a state of emergency and seize power.

.. An overwhelming NLD victory might prompt a backlash by reactionary forces - including military hardliners, Buddhist nationalists and USDP supporters - fomenting instability across the country.

Comments

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No doubt, they'll get the government they deserve.

Posted by Sir Burr on November 8, 2015 18:22

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What a place it would have been if Mountbatten had prevailed.I have no wish to raise colonialism issues but look at the rest of what the British controlled in Asia. God forgive us but look at Hong Kong, Singapore,India, Malaysia.
It makes my heart weep!!

Posted by lemorne on November 8, 2015 21:45


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