Phuket Economic Analysis
WHETHER there are now welcoming flowers at Phuket International Airport or they have been stolen again, one thing is certain: the number of arriving passengers continues to decline.
Figures for the first half of 2009 dipped by 13.28 percent compared to 2008, with the six-month total amounting to 2,800,790 arrivals and departures.
The positive that can be drawn from the figures is that June was only 8.60 percent down on the previous year, a smaller fall than most other months so far.
Remember the good times? The boom beginning to 2008 appeared to indicate that records would be set. June 2008 produced another positive increment, up 9.5 percent on June 2007.
The reality is, then, that in terms of passenger growth, the latest figures take Phuket back two years. Such is the state of the world at present that many people long to go back a lot further, back to 1977, definitely not 1997.
If two years of loss of growth were all there was to it, then the island's future might look brighter. However, all the evidence indicates that the passengers who are still coming have far less money to spend.
For those who wish to have an accurate measure of the pain so far, July's figures last year were a shade on the positive side. Then the pearl of the Andaman went pear-shaped in August and September.
The reason? The three-day Phuket airport blockade.
One odd circumstance is that while there is at present a huge fuss and the possibility of charges being laid over November's airports invasions in Bangkok, the seizure in Phuket has simply been overlooked.
In hindsight, perhaps if the people responsible had been pursued diligently back in September, Thailand's political course might have been different ever since.
That said, the airport invasions have proven to be just one of several major contributing factors to the tourism industry's difficulties.
On the positive side, while Phuket is experiencing lean times, only Hua Hin/Cha Am seem to be surviving in better shape within Thailand.
The managing director of one of the island's leading resorts has told Phuketwan that first quarter 2009 occupancy was down 30 percent on the record figures of 2008 while the second quarter was 20 percent down.
He is one of those eternally positive people in the industry who is constantly finding novel ways to attempt to unleash the cash flow lifeblood that all businesses need right now.
Remember, Phuket's pain now extends back almost 12 months. It's little wonder that confidence, appropriately comparable to a pair of holiday shorts, is currently at knee-level, and likely to fall still further.
We hear that some spas and other ancillary businesses are really finding times tough, and we figured the wellness industry would be . . . well . . . well and truly hurting.
Not so, said one player, indicating that in bad times, people may still feel maintaining good health is even more important than in prosperous times.
But back to those figures. We can't say whether the swine flu-H1N1 factor has kicked in to this point, as seems likely to become certain with July's figures.
But in June, international passengers to Phuket declined by 14.22 percent while local fliers dipped by 4.95 percent.
While it's pure guesswork, that difference to us indicates there's a virus factor in the figures, along with greater concern overseas about political uncertainty in Thailand.
And we can expect the virus factor to become more pronounced, probably meaning that more people will holiday closer to home, making the assumption from now on that it will be better for health, as well as wealth.
Some people think the coming Asean meetings will be good for marketing Phuket. Others say it will be of absolutely no benefit.
As everyone on the island knows, there is no point in standing around like a Pacific cargo cult tribe, thinking positive thoughts and wishing for the tourists to fall gently from the grey Summer skies.
We think the coming months will see more discounting, with growing desperation now to find the bottom, then work back up.
Will there be a high season? Yes, but probably at low-season pricing. We suggest it should be called Summer Plus.
Economies in the region seem to be rolling again, but tourism will take longer to return. The good times may be a little while off yet.
The good times may be gone for good ! How many thousands of complaints does it take to wake some authorities up? Under-planning and over building, dirty roads and smelly drains, tailor touts and time-share drunks, problems at immigration , (the welcome smile is gone!) rip off taxis from the airport, dangerous mini bus tours, the lawlessness of the roads, no police checks and radars (??), and last but not least no public transport and violent tuk tuks Is this the way to welcome tourists anywhere in the world ? Wake up, there are lots of clean places to go on holidays. Once Thailand was a faraway exotic cheap destination, its still faraway but much less exotic and certainly not cheap .
Posted by elizabeth on July 16, 2009 18:28