RATES at resorts around the Andaman are expected to drop dramatically after Songkran and Easter in mid-April. Wise holidaymakers will shop around.

The two important breaks come at the same time this year, reducing options and concentrating attention on the need for one large burst of occupancy action.

The latest Phuketwan resorts survey shows a variety of economic indicators. Doing well, or not? Much seems to depend these days on what you do and who you know.

From Songkran and Easter until next high season, the outlook remains uncertain with few people game to guess as to when the occupancy rates will improve.

Phuket's best market, Australia, is debating whether or not the country is in recession. It's a rapidly expanding club that the Aussies do not want to join.

Yet despite the tourism clouds, some big brands are continuing to grow. Judging by the scale of its global spread, Marriott has plans to take over the world.

Outrigger is also growing, despite the downturn. In Thailand, Centara, part of the Central conglomerate, also shows no sign of slowing.

Its huge new beachfront establishment at Karon is set to open later this year, and the branded properties keep increasing.

Central Plaza Hotel Plc (Centel) executive chairman Suthikiati Chirathivat said the focus this year was on opening four-star hotels as well as developing a new line of three-star properties.

There has also been consistent talk of the no-frills Malaysian brand Tune Hotels bringing its ''five-star beds'' to Phuket.

From what we hear, some three-stars are doing quite well on occupancy, although at lower than hoped for prices.

Even in difficult times, people need to eat. The Central Restaurant Group, which includes brands such as KFC and Mister Donut, operated 511 outlets at the end of 2008.

The bidding war for Songkran and Easter guests is on in earnest now, with the Sala brand offering a pay two nights get one free promotion at Sala Phuket and Sala Samui.

The marketing people seem to be promoting the brand as SALA. We prefer a subtler sell.

Now that March is being experienced first-hand and April really rides on Songkran-Easter, the focus will fall on May. But with late bookings as the big trend, our crystal ball has clouded over.

Here's what we were told in the latest survey:



Open: 1996
Rooms: 168
Rating: four star
Tel: 076 328300 E: info@naiyangbeachresort.com

January Occupancy Rate 50 percent (last year 78 percent) February Occupancy Rate 60 percent (last year 89 percent) March so far 35 percent. April Bookings 60-70 percent

Reason for the increase: Thai International Travel Fair 2009 in Bangkok in late February-early March has been given credit for the high April bookings. Promotional price of one baht for the first night and 999 baht for the second seen as providing a boost. The offer is available for Phuket residents and expats between March 12 and 18 at a booth for the Nai Yang Beach resort at Central Festival. Main customers: Scandinavians, Thais. Expats 50 percent, Thais 50 percent. ''Discovery Thailand'' and ''Discovery World 2009'' campaigns also credited with boosting bookings.



Open: 1996
Rooms: 85
Rating: three-star
Tel: 076 340204 E: info@tropica-bungalow.com

Occupancy rate January 70 percent (last year 90 percent) February 60 percent (last year 90 percent) March so far 70 percent (last year 80 percent) Forecast is that April and Songkran, which usually boosts visitors, will be down with bookings at 20 percent compared to the usual 50-60 percent. Tropica is near the beach and discounts of 20 percent below normal rates have helped. December last year brought 65 percent occupancy compared to what is normally close to 100 percent. Most customers come from Scandinavia and Europe.



Open: 2005
Rooms: 49 Villas
Rating: five star
Tel: 076 317800 E: info@chandara-resort.com

The occupancy rate for January 2009 was about 22 percent compared with 37 percent at the same time last year. In February, the rate was 10 percent compared to 37 percent last year. For March, bookings are running at 10 percent compared to 34 percent last year. The Songkran weekend in April has attracted five bookings so far compared to 49 percent occupancy for the month last year. Most customers come from Korea and Europe. Visitors make up 90 percent, with Koreans 60 percent of that total. The Koreans mostly come through agents.



(formerly Pacific International Phuket Resort and Spa)

Open: 2004
Rooms: 78, including 26 villas
Rating: four star
Tel: 076 275002-14 E: relax@atpanta.com

The occupancy rate for Janauary 2009 was 39 percent compared to 87 percent last year. For February the occupancy rate was 25 percent compared to 88 percent. March brings bookings of 33 percent compared to 73 percent last year. The resort is seven kilometres from the beach, with a shuttle to Surin regularly. Most customers come from England and Germany, with Korea and Singapore the other popular destinations. About 30 percent come from Europe, and most from Korea. About 95 percent of Europeans arrive via Internet bookings.



Open: 1988
Rooms: 676
Rating: five star
Tel: 076 396433 E: phuketarcadia@hilton.com

Phuket's big momma resort seems to be over a particularly tough period, although it continues to ride at lower than normal levels. January 2009 brought an occupancy rate of 66 percent, compared to 87.44 percent last year. February 2009 saw occupancy at 74 percent compared to last year, when the rate was 91.55 percent. For March, bookings are at 55 percent with more customers from Italy and Scandinavia this year. Songkran bookings are at 73 percent for April. Some of the figures for 2008 as originally published were much lower than actual percentage. On advice from the Hilton Arcadia, we have now revised them upwards.



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