JOBS are probably safe at resorts on Phuket as the island's tourism outlook improves, says Mathee Tanmanatragul, President of the southern chapter of the Thai Hotels Association.

But that really depends on Thailand being seen as a stable destination through 2010, he adds.

While the record number of tourists coming through Phuket International Airport in January is a heartening sign, the island's economy is still hurting.

''The island always has had an over-supply of rooms available,'' Khun Mathee says. ''Even five or six years ago, the maximum occupancy rate we could achieve was 80 to 85 percent.''

The influx of visitors to Phuket in 2010 has come about primarily because the island, through discounting and crisis marketing, is great value for money.

People in Europe are still taking holidays, spending cautiously on what they see as a basic need. However, other factors conspire to restrict the revenue benefits.

Visitors who take the cheap packages are not big spenders. They are never going to be big tippers, nor do they appreciate the excessive fares charged on Phuket for tuk-tuks and taxis.

So while the number of tourists arriving at Phuket airport is a rough guide as to whether times are good or bad, subtler calibrations are required to determine whether the island is actually prospering.

And there will always be paradoxes. It's great, for instance, that major brands consider Phuket to be a good long-term investment prospect, and that local brands continue to plan new resorts.

But the faith in the island's future inevitably leads to an oversupply of rooms.

Resorts will usually try everything to avoid a reduction in rates.

But after the 2004 tsunami, and again in different circumstances after the economic crisis and political uncertainty of 2008-2009, discounting became essential for survival.

While the Andaman coast and Sri Lanka were the only tourist destinations seriously affected by the tsunami, virtually every tourist label in the world felt the reverberations of the economic downturn.

So tourists these days have a much wider choice of destinations.

Some of them see the additionally high cost of food and transport on Phuket and calculate that, when everything is taken into consideration, there are places that are better value for money.

The restoration of room rates to previous levels, never an easy task at the best of times, becomes even more difficult on Phuket where just one part of the industry bears the high cost of discounts and marketing.

Other parts assume they are entitled to a handsome living, whether times are bad or good.