NEXT YEAR remains a danger year for Phuket tourism, based on figures and feedback supplied to the Phuket Tourism Association.

Somboon Jirayus, president of the PTA, told Phuketwan that November and December had been running at 50 to 60 percent occupancy compared to 80 to 100 percent in past high seasons.

''From Christmas to New Year, the occupancy is running at 70 to 80 percent,'' he said. ''Normally on Phuket, it's 100 percent in peak season.

''After New Year, the numbers will drop again. And after March, occupancy rates at this stage are not looking so good.''

He said that the Indian market was improving, because that country had not suffered an economic downturn on the same scale as most other sources of tourists.

Signs were ''looking good'' that more Indian weddings would be held on the island.

The Japanese market, on the other hand, was still uncertain. AirAsia and other direct flights were a sign of better times to come, he said.

While there are resorts that are suffering and others that are coping, the general view of the PTA reflects what Phuketwan has heard from resort managers.

Flights and tourist numbers are strengthening, but at reduced prices, so the economy of the island remains at a low ebb.

The trend towards late bookings online also leaves resorts with no clear pattern emerging yet to indicate how the island will fare in the coming low season.

Rising prices on Phuket, reflected in everything from the island's minimum wage on upwards, have made Phuket more vulnerable to competition from other countries.

While Thai hospitality is always a strong attraction, the blatant greed of some in the so-called ''service'' industry on Phuket keeps many tourists who have been ripped off once from returning.

Socially, the lack of a sensible overall outlook on the way the Phuket economy should function poses the danger of an increase in crime.

Unfortunately, the ''jobs for the boys'' philosophy that lies at the heart of most of the island's social problems is not designed for harsh economic times.

Fewer customers, so set the price even higher? It's just as well resorts on the island don't try that one.

For those looking for the next economic indicator, the Phuket International Boat Show (Pimex) 2010 will provide some pointers.

It's the first time the show has been cut loose from the King's Cup Regatta, and it begins at the Royal Phuket Marina on January 7 and runs for three days.