PHUKET'S air traffic continues to be full of contradictions. Oh how we wish we could say instead that it was full of tourists.

But then, that's one of the surprising statistical contradictions . . . figures show that Phuket actually has been full of tourists in April 2010, relatively speaking.

It's just that there may not be too many more visitors coming in May, June and July, largely because of all those nasty and needless national travel alerts.

We are all so forgetful of the lessons of Phuket's very recent history. May, for example, is of late destined to be Groundhog Month.

Everybody seems to have neglected to remember that this time last year, Phuket and Thailand were reeling from the red invasion of the Pattaya resort that was to be the setting for the Songkran Asean meeting.

This year, it was the red Bangkok street invasion. Back in 2008, it was the yellow invasion first of Phuket airport, then of Suvarnabhumi airport.

By our reckoning, in the reality television series race to sacrifice Thailand's tourism industry on the Grand Altar of Democracy (cut its heart out or chop off both legs and arms, we'll leave the details to you) that's 2-1. Two Phuket owes the reds, and one Phuket owes the yellows.

But before we grow all bitter and twisted, as we usually do when reflecting on the reds and the yellows and the tourist industry, let's look at the latest figures.

In April, Phuket enjoyed a total of 568,662 arrivals and departures. The people at Airports of Thailand count tourists as they fly in, and as they fly out as well.

So, to gain a reasonably accurate total of the number of tourists visiting Phuket, cut that number in half. OK, we'll do it for you: 284,331.

Now, put that figure to one side. As the AoT counts all visitors twice, so will we. The 2010 April total of 568,662 compares well with the 2009 total of 484,740, which was 4.53 percent down on the 2008 total of 507,764.

Hey, that was almost what you would call a recovery . . . but this being Thailand, we'd hate to count on people being concerned to give the country a good reputation and a satisfactory income.

Now, let's turn to the future. With the ridiculous and damaging national travel alerts now costing Phuket and Thailand's tourism a small fortune - no, make that a large fortune - May will be the real test.

And let's not ignore the Groundhog Month effect. In 2009, after the red invasion in Pattaya, Phuket airport welcomed and farewelled a total of just 361,192 travellers. What's more, that figure was 14.48 percent down on 2008.

Based on what we have been told by unhappy resort managers, May 2010 is more likely to be like May 2009 than May 2008, which, if we remember rightly, wasn't a patch on the wonderful high season of 2007-2008, now a distant memory.

Such is life on Phuket. With the 2004 tsunami, we all knew that the only way was up.

With the reds and the yellows and Thai politics, we suspect the future of Phuket and Thailand will remain unpredictable. And more full of contradictions than tourists.